Tuesday, October 20, 2020

What deadly pandemic? All-cause deaths are down substantially.

What deadly pandemic?  Here are the facts from the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

2017 total all-cause deaths: 2,813,503
2018 total all-cause deaths: 2,839,205
As of 10/19/2020: 2,246,171 (Only 6,729 flu deaths? Really?)
Multiplying by 1.25 (day 293/366 = 1.2491) gets us to: 2,807,713

To put us on track for 3,000,000 deaths (that's only an extra 160,000 due to COVID), we'd have to already be at:  2,400,000 deaths.

Let's look at it another way.  We're averaging 7,666 deaths per day so far.  To add another 160,000 deaths, the CDC's reporting would have to be off by 21 days.  Three whole weeks.  This is in a time when the news broadcasts daily death totals by state and as a whole for the nation.  

Of course, the CDC says there have been 206,172 COVID deaths.  Assuming there isn't a single new death blamed on COVID for the rest of the year (hah!), our death toll should be approximately 3,045,000.  So we should be at an all-cause total of 2,436,000 as of October 19.  We're only 189,829 deaths short of that number.  That's 25 days of deaths.  Is the CDC really three and a half weeks behind in their reporting?  I seriously doubt that.

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